Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
