Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
